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Are Home prices heading for a triple-dip?
Are Home prices heading for a triple-dip?
Could the besieged housing market have even further to fall before home prices really hit rock bottom? A new report by Fiserv, a financial analytics company, states that home values are expected to fall another 3.6% by next June, pushing them to a new low of 35% below the peak reached in early 2006 and marking a triple dip in prices. There are several factors working against the housing market in the upcoming months, including an increase in foreclosure activity and sustained high unemployment. If home values meet Fiserv's expectations, it would make it the third trough for home prices since the housing bubble burst. The first post-bubble bottom was hit in 2009, when prices fell to 31% below peak. While the First Time Home Buyer Credit helped raise prices by mid-2010, prices fell again once the credit expired. During the second dip, which was reached last winter, prices were down about 33%. We did have a mild rally that was artificially spurred as banks slowed the processing of foreclosures following the robo-signing scandal, which found that loan servicers were rapidly signing foreclosures without properly vetting them. With the scandal mostly resolved the lenders are speeding more cases through the foreclosure pipeline and back onto the market, weighing on home prices even further. Earlier this month, RealtyTrac reported the first quarterly increase in foreclosure filings in three quarters. Even more discouraging: new default notices were up 14%. There is also a shadow inventory of homes that will be hitting the market when the banks release them for sale. This may also put pressure on the market and prices.
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